【外資觀點】高盛：中國成長及政策前景有「轉機」 上調亞洲股市指數目標

楊岸儒 CSIA證券分析師

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本資料僅供內部特定同仁教育訓練用。我們並不確保此資訊的完整性與正確性，報告中相關之陳述可能不會實現，因而不應被依賴，僅供參考。

 

 

【外資觀點】僅提供內部參考或協助業務開發使用，並非群益投顧觀點或投資建議，詳細資料請參考附件!  根據高盛的報告，分析師調高日本以外MSCI亞太指數三個月的預估，由405升至425，且調高指數的六個月目標，由430升至440，並維持12個月的預測為485。          高盛認為有三大因素，未來將左右亞股盤勢：    1.中國的官方政策：In a matter of just a few weeks, investor focus has seemingly reversed from worries of the Chinese economy overheating to concerns about a sharp deceleration in growth. Given recent data points that indicate a sequential slowdown in activity and the recent downgrade of our China GDP forecast from our economists, we can understand investor concerns, but we believe sentiment may reverse quickly on positive signals from policy makers. Investors are looking for signs that the tightening cycle is nearly over and that policy will soon be more neutral or accommodative.    2.歐美經濟成長疑慮：While Asia faces the typical cyclical pressures associated with an economic recovery, the developed world faces more deep-rooted concerns, most notably regarding deleveraging and fiscal consolidation. Although we believe that economic growth in many parts of Asia will continue to stem from domestic demand going forward, the prospects of a weaker global economy have weighed heavily upon Asian equities this year.   Catalysts that could help calm global growth fears：European "Stress Test" results could provide confidence through the removal of uncertainty.     3.IPO資金去向：Besides concerns on macro fundamentals in G3 and China, investors are also increasingly focusing on the likelihood of liquidity drain from a substantial issuance pipeline ahead. This is one of the most frequently asked questions we got from investors. In this section, we update our analysis and summarize it into the following points: a.Potential issuance is equivalent to 2.5% of regional market cap. According to IFR data, US$158bn of potential supply is scheduled for the remainder of the year. Together with the US$119bn that has been issued, capital issuance in 2010 is expected to be around 2.5% of regional market cap. We think this looks reasonable compared to history (Exhibit 20).   b.The fund-raising is concentrated in China (domestic and offshore) and financials. The potential capital issuance of US$65bn and US$51bn represent 3.0% of HK (or 4.2% of China offshore) and 1.7% of China domestic market cap respectively. Financials (banks, real estate, insurance & others) is the largest sector for new issuance, taking 63% of the total (Exhibits 21-23).   c.Weights of "mega-deals" are substantial. The top three equity listings are all in China banks, together accounting for 26% of the overall pipeline for 2H10.   整體而言，高盛認為中國經濟政策前景的「轉機」，將緩和對外部成長風險、及消化股市新籌碼的疑慮，因而調升亞股目標價。     投資建議：    亞太不含日本指數，中國銀行類股，與台、韓科技類股。

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